A Message to Those Who Think Trading Depends on Luck

If you want to get on my bad side, tell me that trading involves a high degree of luck. Nothing gets me going more than that- especially if you’re very adamant about your view. I’m usually quite calm, composed, and level headed. But when I hear those words, they get under my skin.

You see, trading is one of the toughest pursuits out there. Something that will test every ounce of spirit you have- only to make you dig deeper. Something that requires you to develop yourself to a greater degree than most people even know is possible. Something that takes years to truly master. And so when you claim that trading depends on luck, you’re personally insulting me. You’re saying that the result of all my effort and years of practice hang on the flip of a coin. And you’re assuming that I’m gullible enough to keep trudging on despite that.

So if you believe that trading depends on luck, I have a message for you: You know nothing about trading or luck.

Luck means randomness. Or in statistical terms, a random probability distribution. But what would you know of statistics to actually understand that. And trading is all about edge, which by definition means a non-random probability distribution. This, you do understand, because you’re regularly at the wrong end of it at the casino. And of course that’s where you spend your time looking to get rich because the only way to get rich is to get lucky right?

But while you’re at the casino, I’m honing my skills. And when you’re rolling the dice,  I’m honing my edge. And when you decide to “play” the market to see if you can get lucky like all those professional traders (who seem to get lucky quite often don’t you think?), I’ll be there to take your money. Because I am the casino in this domain. And you’ve just entered through my doors.

So go on, tell me it’s all luck. Tell me that I must be lucky because I somehow make money every single month. Tell me that I got lucky that the market went up when I actually made all my money shorting into the blind euphoria created by people like you.  Tell me whatever you like. You may get under my skin, but I’ll be taking your money.

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